Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Wheat Crop in Madhya Pradesh
Price: ₹ 500
Author: Lokesh Kumar , Pradeep Mishra *, R.B. Singh , Mujahida Sayyed , Deepak Rathi and Aditya Bhooshan Srivastava
Author Address: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, JNKVV, Jabalpur-482 004(India), College of Agriculture, Powarkheda, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Jabalpur-461 110 (Madhya Pradesh), College of Agriculture (JNKVV), Ganj 3 Basoda- ( ), 4464 221 Madhya P
Keywords: Area, ARIMA, forecasting, instability, modelling, production, wheat yield.
JEL Codes: C22, C52, C53, C55.
Abstract
This study will indubitably benefit the
farmers, policymakers and stakeholders by delivering accurate forecast
information of Madhya Pradesh and India. Forecasting is the primary method to
predict wheat production in order to identify the situation and determine the
value of production for the following year while minimizing production risk.
This study used the ARIMA Model to predict wheat crop area, production, and
yield in India and Madhya Pradesh. Model fitting and forecasting up to 2026
were carried out annual data from 1960 to 2020. This model's forecasting
performance was selected based on its lowest AIC, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and maximum
R values. Furthermore, the instability research revealed that while India had
overall low instability, Madhya 2 Pradesh had high
instability in terms of area, production, and yield compared to Period-I (1960
to 1990). Moreover, this research will aid in formulating effective policies
regarding wheat production.
Description
Indian Journal of Economics and Development
Volume 18 No. 3, 2022, 577-586
DOI: https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED/22215
NAAS Score: 5.15 (2022)
Indexed in Clarivate Analytics (ESCI) of WoS
Indexed in Scopus (SJR: 0.18)
UGC Approved (UGC-Care List Group II)