Cereal Productivity in India: Insights from Historical and Global Contexts
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Author: K.N. Singh, Anuja A.R., Harish Kumar H.V., Jaiprakash Bisen, Mrinmoy Ray, Rajeev Ranjan Kumar, Shivaswamy G. P. and Rajesh T.
Author Address: ICAR-Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi-110012 (India), ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Kochi-682018 (India), ICAR-Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bengaluru-560089 (India), ICAR-Indian Agricultural R
Keywords: Cereals, institutional factors, technological progress, time-scaled crop productivity.
JEL Codes: Q01, Q11, Q12.
Abstract
This study used time-scaled crop productivity for spatial comparisons among leading cereal producers, as it measures crop output per hectare per day and accounts for the number of days required to reach the same output level across regions. The results indicated that rice's per-hectare crop productivity in India (4.22 t/ha) was lower than in Bangladesh (4.89 t/ha), but it surpassed Bangladesh's by 20 kg/ha/day when the new metrics were used. Similarly, for wheat, India (3.53 t/ha) ranked third after China (5.85 t/ha) and Russia (3.55 t/ha); however, in terms of its time-scaled productivity, India and China leads with 24 kg/ha/day followed by Australia (14 kg/ha/day) and Russia (12 kg/ha/day). For maize, its ranked the same in both per-hectare and time-scaled crop productivity. Structural break analysis was used to identify significant shifts in rice, wheat, and maize output in India from 1950-51 to 2020-21 and to link these changes to technological progress, institutional factors, and policy reforms. Results showed that over the past 70 years, rice and wheat outputs experienced five structural breaks, while maize had four, corresponding to key technological and policy changes.
Description
Indian J Econ Dev, 2026, 22(1), 51-60
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-25122
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