Short-Run and Long-Run Dynamics of Climate and Non-Climate Factors on Food Production in India: An ARDL Study: 25191
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https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-25191
Author: R. Mariappan
Author Address: Assistant Professor, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai-600 005 (Tamil Nadu)
Abstract
This study examined the
short- and long-run dynamics of climate and non-climate factors on food
production in India from 1990–91 to 2022–23. Unit root tests confirmed a mixed
order of integration, with all variables being I(0) or I(1). The absence of
I(2) variables validated the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model,
which was employed to evaluate the influences of climate and non-climate
factors on food production in India. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model
results revealed that the estimated coefficients for carbon dioxide emissions
and rainfall of the previous year in the short-run analysis, as well as carbon
dioxide emissions and rainfall in the long-run analysis, had a statistically
significant positive effect on food production at the 1 per cent significance
level. Additionally, the results of both the short- and long-run analyses
showed that fertilizer consumption had a positive and statistically significant
effect on food production. Moreover, the error-correction term indicated a
speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium of 18
per cent per annum. The findings of the study were expected to be helpful to
agronomists and policymakers in developing appropriate strategies for the
Indian agricultural sector.
Keywords
ARDL bound
testing approach, climate change,
economic impact, food production.
JEL Codes
C22, Q11, Q18, Q51, Q54.