Growth and Export Performance of Cumin in India: 24146
Price: ₹ 1000
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-24146
Author: Rohlupuii, Amit Guleria and Laishram Priscilla
Author Address: Department of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004 (Punjab)
Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of cumin in India over 15
years (2008–09 to 2022–23), divided into Period-I and II, and the overall
period. The results show positive and significant growth in area, production,
and productivity, along with rising export quantity and value. However, a
Nominal Protection Coefficient above one in recent years indicates declining
export competitiveness. Transitional probability analysis identified Bangladesh
as the most stable export market, followed by Brazil and the UAE, while the
USA, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia show instability. Projections to 2029–30 suggest
increasing shares for the UAE and Saudi Arabia, with declined for Bangladesh
and Brazil. The study highlighted the need for policies focused on quality
standardization, efficient supply chains, price stability, and market
diversification to sustain India’s global competitiveness.
Keywords
Export,
Markov chain, future prediction, growth rate, instability index.
JEL Codes
C44, F17, Q17