Impact Analysis of Export Diversification on Growth and Stability: Evidence from Indian Dairy Exports to Asian Countries
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Author: Mrinmoy Das, Gunjan Bhandari, Biswajit Sen and Udita Chaudhary
Author Address: Research Scholar, Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi-110012 (Delhi), Scientist and 3Senior Scientist, Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karn
Keywords: Box-Cox model, extensive margin, Herfindahl Index, market penetration.
JEL Codes: F10, F13, Q17.
Abstract
Diversification of products and destinations is a key strategy for enhancing export performance. This study analysed the relationship between diversification, growth and stability in Indian dairy exports using UN COMTRADE data from 2000 to 2022. The product Herfindahl Index (HI) declined from 0.36 to 0.20 and the geographic HI from 0.30 to 0.12, reflecting greater diversification. Sub-regional analysis showed marked improvements in West and Southeast Asia, though variations persist across regions. The export penetration ratio increased from 0.45 per cent in 2000 to 2.0 per cent in 2022, largely driven by gains on the extensive margin. Regression results based on the Box-Cox Transformation Model confirmed that diversification promotes growth and stability, while instability undermines both. Policy efforts should prioritize deepening trade with existing partner-product relationships through quality upgrading and long-term buyer engagement.
Description
Indian J Econ Dev, 2026, 22(3), 416-424
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-25376