Temporal Analysis of Tomato Prices and Arrivals in Karnataka: Insights from SARIMA Model
Price: ₹ 500
Author: Preethika Suresh, Lekha Priya K., Nikhitha Yeturu, Neha Bhargavi and Merlin Mathew
Author Address: VIT School of Agricultural Innovations and Advanced Learning (VAIAL) and 2Department of Agricultural Extension and Economics, VAIAL, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore-632014 (Tamil Nadu)
Keywords: Price behaviour, price forecasting, SARIMA model, seasonality, trend.
JEL Codes: B16, C32, C53, C55.
Abstract
This study analysed the price behaviour of tomatoes in five major markets of Karnataka. Statistical tools such as correlation, seasonal index, and trend analysis were employed to examine the relationship between prices and market arrivals, seasonal variations, and patterns in tomato prices. Positive correlations were observed in some markets in Karnataka, likely due to the demand-supply gap, differences in tomato quality, and transportation costs. Among the selected markets, Binny Mill exhibited the highest intra-year price fluctuations, while Chikkamagalore experienced the lowest. The upward movement of the trend lines in Chikkamagalore, Ramanagara, and Kolar indicated a strong relationship between the two variables, possibly due to increased demand and limited supply. Consequently, the SARIMA model was employed to forecast tomato prices in the primary markets of Karnataka. The predicted prices for Karnataka markets decreased substantially in May but increased in June and July. Deviations between the forecasted and actual prices for 2023 suggested that market dynamics such as erratic supply, demand fluctuations, and other external factors might not be fully captured by the SARIMA model. Advanced model predictions are recommended to enhance forecasting accuracy and better account for complex market behaviours in crops like tomatoes.
Description
Indian J Econ Dev, 2024, 20(3), 440-448
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-23462