Short-Run and Long-Run Dynamics of Climate and Non-Climate Factors on Food Production in India: An ARDL Study
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Author: R. Mariappan
Author Address: Assistant Professor, Department of Econometrics, University of Madras, Chennai-600 005 (Tamil Nadu)
Keywords: ARDL bound testing approach, climate change, economic impact, food production.
JEL Codes: C22, Q11, Q18, Q51, Q54.
Abstract
This study examined the short- and long-run dynamics of climate and non-climate factors on food production in India from 1990–91 to 2022–23. Unit root tests confirmed a mixed order of integration, with all variables being I(0) or I(1). The absence of I(2) variables validated the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, which was employed to evaluate the influences of climate and non-climate factors on food production in India. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model results revealed that the estimated coefficients for carbon dioxide emissions and rainfall of the previous year in the short-run analysis, as well as carbon dioxide emissions and rainfall in the long-run analysis, had a statistically significant positive effect on food production at the 1 per cent significance level. Additionally, the results of both the short- and long-run analyses showed that fertilizer consumption had a positive and statistically significant effect on food production. Moreover, the error-correction term indicated a speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium of 18 per cent per annum. The findings of the study were expected to be helpful to agronomists and policymakers in developing appropriate strategies for the Indian agricultural sector.
Description
Indian J Econ Dev, 2026, 22(2), 239-249
https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-25191