Impact Analysis of Export Diversification on Growth and Stability: Evidence from Indian Dairy Exports to Asian Countries: 25376
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https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED-25376
Author: Mrinmoy Das, Gunjan Bhandari, Biswajit Sen, and Udita Chaudhary
Author Address: Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal-132001 (Haryana)
Abstract
Diversification
of products and destinations is a key strategy for enhancing export
performance. This study analysed the relationship between diversification,
growth and stability in Indian dairy exports using UN COMTRADE data from 2000
to 2022. The product Herfindahl Index (HI) declined from 0.36 to 0.20 and the
geographic HI from 0.30 to 0.12, reflecting greater diversification.
Sub-regional analysis showed marked improvements in West and Southeast Asia,
though variations persist across regions. The export penetration ratio
increased from 0.45 per cent in 2000 to 2.0 per cent in 2022, largely driven by
gains on the extensive margin. Regression results based on the Box-Cox
Transformation Model confirmed that diversification promotes growth and
stability, while instability undermines both. Policy efforts should prioritize
deepening trade with existing partner-product relationships through quality
upgrading and long-term buyer engagement.
Keywords
Box-Cox
model, extensive margin, Herfindahl Index, market penetration.
JEL Codes
F10, F13, Q17.